Current Economy Environment in India
IIP growth likely to remain 1-2% in January: Dun & Bradstreet report
According to the research firm, though the government has already started taking measures and the RBI has initiated easing the monetary policy, its impact on the industrial activity is likely to take some time.
"IIP is expected to remain volatile and IIP growth is expected to remain in the range of 1-2 per cent during January," the report said.
The industrial output contracted by 0.6 per cent in December registering the second consecutive month of decline.
"The sustained volatility in the industrial activity indicates that the revival in growth would be delayed than expected.
"This raises hope that the RBI would continue to ease its monetary policy to boost confidence and support the industrial activity going ahead," Dun & Bradstreet India Senior Economist Arun Singh said.
The report further said that while the moderation in the consumption demand is expected to slow down the manufactured products inflation, upside risks to overall inflation in the medium term persists from the gradual hike in the diesel
prices and increase in global crude oil prices.
D&B expects the WPI inflation to remain in the range of 6.3-6.5 per cent in February 2013 and CPI inflation continuing to hover above the double digit at around 10.7 per cent-10.9 per cent in January.
"The divergence in the WPI and CPI inflation points to the prevalence of the structural bottlenecks which needs to be addressed," Singh said.
The central bank had last month lowered interest rates by 0.25 per cent saying that with inflation showing signs of remaining range bound, it was now critical to arrest the loss of growth momentum.
According to the advance estimates of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), the GDP growth in the current fiscal is likely to be 5 per cent. However, the government expects it to be over 5.5 per cent. The economy grew by 6.2 per cent in 2011-12 fiscal.
Regarding the upcoming Union Budget of 2013-14, Singh said it is expected to address the structural bottlenecks and deliver measures which would bring about stability, reinforce the growth prospects and also instill confidence among companies, Singh added.The country's Index industrial production (IIP) is expected to remain subdued but in the positive range of 1-2 per cent during January due to moderation in consumption and weak external demand, a Dun & Bradstreet report says.
According to the research firm, though the government has already started taking measures and the RBI has initiated easing the monetary policy, its impact on the industrial activity is likely to take some time.
"IIP is expected to remain volatile and IIP growth is expected to remain in the range of 1-2 per cent during January," the report said.
The industrial output contracted by 0.6 per cent in December registering the second consecutive month of decline.
"The sustained volatility in the industrial activity indicates that the revival in growth would be delayed than expected.
"This raises hope that the RBI would continue to ease its monetary policy to boost confidence and support the industrial activity going ahead," Dun & Bradstreet India Senior Economist Arun Singh said.
The report further said that while the moderation in the consumption demand is expected to slow down the manufactured products inflation, upside risks to overall inflation in the medium term persists from the gradual hike in the diesel
prices and increase in global crude oil prices.
D&B expects the WPI inflation to remain in the range of 6.3-6.5 per cent in February 2013 and CPI inflation continuing to hover above the double digit at around 10.7 per cent-10.9 per cent in January.
"The divergence in the WPI and CPI inflation points to the prevalence of the structural bottlenecks which needs to be addressed," Singh said.
The central bank had last month lowered interest rates by 0.25 per cent saying that with inflation showing signs of remaining range bound, it was now critical to arrest the loss of growth momentum.
According to the advance estimates of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), the GDP growth in the current fiscal is likely to be 5 per cent. However, the government expects it to be over 5.5 per cent. The economy grew by 6.2 per cent in 2011-12 fiscal.
Regarding the upcoming Union Budget of 2013-14, Singh said it is expected to address the structural bottlenecks and deliver measures which would bring about stability, reinforce the growth prospects and also instill confidence among companies, Singh added.
According to the research firm, though the government has already started taking measures and the RBI has initiated easing the monetary policy, its impact on the industrial activity is likely to take some time.
"IIP is expected to remain volatile and IIP growth is expected to remain in the range of 1-2 per cent during January," the report said.
The industrial output contracted by 0.6 per cent in December registering the second consecutive month of decline.
"The sustained volatility in the industrial activity indicates that the revival in growth would be delayed than expected.
"This raises hope that the RBI would continue to ease its monetary policy to boost confidence and support the industrial activity going ahead," Dun & Bradstreet India Senior Economist Arun Singh said.
The report further said that while the moderation in the consumption demand is expected to slow down the manufactured products inflation, upside risks to overall inflation in the medium term persists from the gradual hike in the diesel
prices and increase in global crude oil prices.
D&B expects the WPI inflation to remain in the range of 6.3-6.5 per cent in February 2013 and CPI inflation continuing to hover above the double digit at around 10.7 per cent-10.9 per cent in January.
"The divergence in the WPI and CPI inflation points to the prevalence of the structural bottlenecks which needs to be addressed," Singh said.
The central bank had last month lowered interest rates by 0.25 per cent saying that with inflation showing signs of remaining range bound, it was now critical to arrest the loss of growth momentum.
According to the advance estimates of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), the GDP growth in the current fiscal is likely to be 5 per cent. However, the government expects it to be over 5.5 per cent. The economy grew by 6.2 per cent in 2011-12 fiscal.
Regarding the upcoming Union Budget of 2013-14, Singh said it is expected to address the structural bottlenecks and deliver measures which would bring about stability, reinforce the growth prospects and also instill confidence among companies, Singh added.
India's GDP estimated at 5% in FY'13, lowest since FY'04: Govt
India's GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT will be projected to build at 5 per cent in 2012-13, most competitive while in given that 2003-04, because of slower expansion in marketplace, farming along with solutions field, Parliament has been well informed nowadays.
"As per the Improve Estimates produced because of the Key Stats Place of work, the expansion rate connected with GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (at element price tag at constant 2004-05) will be projected to become 5 per cent in 2012-13. This particular expansion rate would be the most competitive through the interval 2003-04 for you to 2012-13, inch Minister connected with Condition regarding Financing Namo Narain Meena stated in a created answer the Lok Sabha.
"The slowdown in expansion in 2012-13 will be because of lower expansion in farming, marketplace along with the solutions field, inch this individual added.
Meena stated the slowdown will be assigned to each household components and also the unstable international economical setting. Involving household components, the tensing connected with financial policy while in nearly all of 2011-12 so as to command inflation led to the slowing connected with investment decision along with expansion, in particular inside the commercial field.
World-wide components contain problems in euro-zone along with lethargic expansion in lots of industrialised financial systems in 2012.
"The steps being set up because of the federal government to revive the economy, contain better entry to finance regarding producing field, fast monitoring connected with huge investment decision projects in facilities, usage of stream shares for you to moderate meal inflation, strengthening connected with financial along with consumer banking field, lowering the volatility connected with swap rate, inch Meena stated.
Furthermore, federal government features introduced disinvestment using public field undertakings, liberalisation connected with FDI in multi- brand name retail store, aviation, broadcasting, lowering of subsidy in diesel powered, the trail map regarding monetary loan consolidation.
"These steps,are expected to revive market confidence, and restore growth momentum over the medium term."
He also said the government has set up the Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI) chaired by the Prime Minister to expedite decisions on approvals and clearances for implementation of projects.
"The CCI will monitor and review the implementation of major projects to ensure accelerated and time-bound grant of various licences, permissions and approvals. This is likely to improve the investment environment by bringing transparency, efficiency and accountability in accordance of various approvals," the minister said.
In a separate reply, Meena said the performance of the industrial sector has been affected both due to hardening of interest rates as well as moderation in external demand owing to uncertainty arising from global economic crisis.
"Deceleration in rate of credit flows, infrastructure bottlenecks, high input costs, slowdown in consumer expenditure, subdued business confidence have also contributed to the slowdown in industrial performance," he added.
"As per the Improve Estimates produced because of the Key Stats Place of work, the expansion rate connected with GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (at element price tag at constant 2004-05) will be projected to become 5 per cent in 2012-13. This particular expansion rate would be the most competitive through the interval 2003-04 for you to 2012-13, inch Minister connected with Condition regarding Financing Namo Narain Meena stated in a created answer the Lok Sabha.
"The slowdown in expansion in 2012-13 will be because of lower expansion in farming, marketplace along with the solutions field, inch this individual added.
Meena stated the slowdown will be assigned to each household components and also the unstable international economical setting. Involving household components, the tensing connected with financial policy while in nearly all of 2011-12 so as to command inflation led to the slowing connected with investment decision along with expansion, in particular inside the commercial field.
World-wide components contain problems in euro-zone along with lethargic expansion in lots of industrialised financial systems in 2012.
"The steps being set up because of the federal government to revive the economy, contain better entry to finance regarding producing field, fast monitoring connected with huge investment decision projects in facilities, usage of stream shares for you to moderate meal inflation, strengthening connected with financial along with consumer banking field, lowering the volatility connected with swap rate, inch Meena stated.
Furthermore, federal government features introduced disinvestment using public field undertakings, liberalisation connected with FDI in multi- brand name retail store, aviation, broadcasting, lowering of subsidy in diesel powered, the trail map regarding monetary loan consolidation.
"These steps,are expected to revive market confidence, and restore growth momentum over the medium term."
He also said the government has set up the Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI) chaired by the Prime Minister to expedite decisions on approvals and clearances for implementation of projects.
"The CCI will monitor and review the implementation of major projects to ensure accelerated and time-bound grant of various licences, permissions and approvals. This is likely to improve the investment environment by bringing transparency, efficiency and accountability in accordance of various approvals," the minister said.
In a separate reply, Meena said the performance of the industrial sector has been affected both due to hardening of interest rates as well as moderation in external demand owing to uncertainty arising from global economic crisis.
"Deceleration in rate of credit flows, infrastructure bottlenecks, high input costs, slowdown in consumer expenditure, subdued business confidence have also contributed to the slowdown in industrial performance," he added.
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